Israel voted yesterday and Kadima's Tzipi Livni is the unexpected winner. Livni's Kadima party won the most seats, with 28, while Likud won 27. But Israeli TV networks and all its smartest analysts believe Likud's leader, Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, is more likely to be the next prime minister. No political party scored anywhere near the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority, but Netanyahu—who shows no willingness to surrender the West Bank and says the 2005 withdrawal from Gaza was a mistake—has the best chance of putting together a coalition to reach that magic number. Will Russian immigrant Avigdor Lieberman, whose party appears to have won 15 seats, prove the kingmaker?