Spring is in the air and the thoughts of every self-respecting Royalist are inevitably turning to when Kate Middleton will be giving birth.
Of course, trying to predict the date a woman—royal or not—will give birth as every father knows is something of a tea leaf-reading exercise, but hey, I’m going to give it a go.
Last time around, in 2013, the press were left standing outside the Lindo Wing of London’s St Mary’s Hospital for almost a month until Kate finally obliged the waiting media by giving birth to Prince George on July 22. There was a most un-London-like heatwave at the time and the patience of everyone from cameramen to royal press officers was severely tested by the Lindo limbo.
The palace, ever cagey about divulging the personal details about which Kate is so protective (let’s not forget she tried to keep the name of her dog, Lupo, secret) had only told the press that the baby was due in July.
This was intended to lessen the pressure on Kate, but had the unfortunate effect of doing the opposite, as hundreds and hundreds of media parked up outside the hospital for weeks on end, claiming their spot for her eventual departure.
This time around, the palace is being a bit more accommodating. Initially, the media were only told that the baby was due “in April” and no further details were provided. But now, apparently anxious to avoid the protracted stakeout that marked the Great Kate Wait of 2013, established media are being gently guided, off the record of course, that the birth may not in fact happen until “towards the end of April.”
This is still a fairly flexible time frame. But a further clue can be found in an engagement Kate made on 13 November last year—attending a One Direction performance as part of the Royal Variety Show—at which time the palace, somewhat to everyone’s surprise, briefed that Kate was 16 weeks pregnant.
If we assume a 40-week pregnancy term, adding 24 weeks to November 13 gives a due date of April 30.
Another way we could try and figure this out is to look at what happened last time around.
Kate was forced (due to extreme pregnancy sickness) to announce she was pregnant on 2 December 2012, and the baby was born on 22 July 2013, which is exactly 33 weeks later.
This time around, Kate suffered from the same condition and was forced to announce she was pregnant on 8 September 2014. If we add 33 weeks to that date, we get a due date of April 27.
Another clue can be found in the fact that Kate and William were photographed leaving a clinic on October 15 holding an envelope. It is believed this was their 12-week scan.
If you add 28 weeks to October 15 you get April 29.
My own bet—and let’s be clear, there are only likely to be a small group of family members and one doctor who know the actual due date—is that the baby will be born on May 4.
My reasoning—and call me an old hippy if you will—is that Prince George was born on July 22, which was a full moon.
There are many who believe the full moon causes a surge at maternity hospitals although the science is not definitive.
Kate is believed to have given birth at least a week past her due date last time, and my hippyish suspicion is that it was the full moon which finally kicked things into action.
If she goes past her due date again, then the May full moon, which falls on May 4, might just prompt the birth.
The other great question, of course, is will it be a boy or a girl?
Well, as the old joke of all expectant parents goes, we certainly hope so.