With upsets few and far between, Las Vegas is sitting pretty entering the Sweet 16. And with 3 long-shots left—Arizona (125-to-1), Xavier (80-to-1) and Purdue (40-to-1)—bookmakers will sleep soundly knowing the house likely won’t be toppled by any unforeseen Cinderella’s. In fact, the biggest “upset” in the tournament thus far has been Dayton over West Virginia, with the Flyers overcoming a modest 11 point spread (hardly a shocker at all) in the opening round. The tournament’s biggest surprise has been the unexpected success of the Big XII Conference—the football powerhouse is running an impressive 11-1 record against the spread, boasting 3 teams in the Sweet 16. Otherwise, things have gone largely according to plan: top seeds are advancing (save some close calls) and Connecticut appears unstoppable, winning its first two games by a combined 82 points. Keep watch for other top seeds, however, as some (see Pitt) have looked particularly vulnerable, narrowly escaping the opening rounds with tight victories.